Permission to Desert

At the After May 1st event earlier this week, John Denham made an interesting point about personalities.  In 1992, many people said that they wouldn't vote for Labour because "they didn't like Neil Kinnock".  This, in Denham's view, was merely an excuse, and that there were more profound underlying reasons why people did not yet want to vote Labour.

It reminded me of a post on the Daily Dish last week, where Andrew Sullivan wrote: "Projecting his own clownish-left sensibility onto the first serious black contender for the presidency ... Wright has given white voters permission - and an alibi - not to vote for Obama on racial grounds."

Could it be that the recent economic stumble has given the voters "permission" not to vote for Labour?  By framing the problems in this manner, the questions Labour must answer become: Why would the electorate be looking for an excuse to desert? And, what must we do to revoke that "permission".

Is this a helpful analysis?  Since it assumes that the electorate is innately unsympathetic to Labour, it's certainly depressing.

Comments

[Tom]

I can't remember who said it, but one theory going around is that 'Blair's Tories' are simply returning home.

Given that the Tories - under Michael Howard of all people - won the English popular vote in 2005 suggests this isn't just Brown's problem.