This week has been a pretty busy one for Progress, so I haven’t had a chance to write on any of the announcements this week. One which has caused a lot of fuss, particularly among electoral reformers, was Gordon’s decision to announce a referendum on changing our voting system to the Alternative Vote. Tempers were particularly frayed at the Vote for a Change/Progress/Compass/Fabian rally on Tuesday night which I wasn’t able to attend because I had an invite to the Gala Dinner for the first time (very nice it was too), but I heard all about it from the tweets and conversations I had the next day.
The main division seemed to be between those who thought that the government’s concession on AV was a step in the right direction, and those who thought it was a missed opportunity. While I don’t think that getting really angry with the government is necessarily a particularly helpful intervention at this point, my feeling is that it certainly wasn’t the bold and radical move which many were saying was needed during conference.
So where next? There is some debate in the Labour electoral reform supporter ranks which suggests we just back the government’s plan for a referendum on AV after the next election, and then regroup after we know what the outcome is. Others have suggested we simply implement AV now but not only is this likely to be impossible in the time we have, it would be akin to gerrymandering in my opinion. My view is that those who support voting reform which creates a proportional outcome should continue to give their backing to the Vote for a Change campaign which is trying to get the government to hold a referendum on electoral reform on general election day, now widely accepted as being May 6th. I have a number of reasons for this.
1) If we assume, in an entirely non-pessimistic, non-defeatist way, that Labour loses the next election, then general election day will be the last chance Labour will have to fulfil its manifesto pledge to hold a referendum on electoral reform. Keeping manifesto pledges is actually quite important (I will be annoyed with anyone who sees this as a reason to waffle on about a referendum on the Lisbon constitution) and would be supported by the public, so I don’t see why this is so controversial. If we lose the general election, we won’t be able to hold a referendum on AV or anything else. Cameron will be unlikely to support a pledge to hold one on AV if he wins, and even if he does, AV is not a step forward since it’s not proportional. We should be campaigning for Labour to hold a referendum when it HAS power, not when there is uncertainty about whether it might.
2) I’m afraid that it feels as if AV has been embraced by some in the Labour party because it helps to put a lid on the proportional argument and is more about tactics than principled support for the change. Because of the expenses scandal, the pro PR campaign has been given a real lift, evidence which shows that the safer the seat, the more likely an MP will tot up their costs has been getting through to the public. So First Past the Posters have been getting worried that we might win the argument seriously this time. Since AV can still result in so-called ‘strong government’ and keeps the constituency link, this is the least worst option for those who wish to maintain the status quo. Former First Past the Posters can now argue that if everyone’s vote counts to some extent, why would we need to change the system any further? Arguing for the plus element of AV+ will become characterised by the antis as an argument to remove constituency accountability from MPs. So if we don’t continue to argue for PR now, those of us who support it will find it harder to argue for in the future if we don’t achieve a referendum.
3) Finally, holding it on GE day will increase turnout. When turnout increases, so does the left and progressive vote. An argument which united the Lib Dems and some in Labour against the Conservatives could help form a progressive majority. The government needn’t take an official position if there were three options on the ballot paper – AV+, AV and FPTP. Individual candidates could campaign on their own choice – those who were pro-PR could use it to show that they are going to be a different MP from the rest, or use it to distance themselves from the expenses scandal. The argument that the government introduced AV to help with the progressive alliance is just wrong – the Lib Dem’s hate AV as much as some of us do, witness Evan Harris’s letter to the Guardian.
This could be our last chance to make effective change on this incredibly important issue, I think we will live to regret it if we don’t seize the opportunity to keep up the pressure on the government. Support Vote for a Change and let's try and convince Gordon and the rest of Cabinet to move the referendum to May 6th 2010.
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