The ever-excellent John Curtice, in yesterday's Sunday Telegraph, says it is mainly the Lib Dems who are suffering as a result of the recent Cameron surge.
But he also argues that this makes a Conservative majority at Labour's expense more likely:
'If the Liberal Democrats are on 23 per cent, as in 2005, Mr Cameron could well need an 11-point lead for a majority. But with the Lib Dems down to 14 per cent, the seven-point lead recorded in the poll could just be enough.'
The inference from much of today's press is that Nick Clegg could be Labour's unlikely saviour.
Perhaps, but didn't most of the Lib Dems' gains in 2005 come in Labour-held seats?
And what evidence is there that Clegg would be more popular than Campbell? Ming's ratings may be bad, but Clegg is, at the moment, almost completely unheard of. He may be young and he may be good, but there is no guarantee voters will prefer a Lib Dem leader with the air of a provincial GP to Ming's patrician lawyer.
