Brown leads Cameron by 27 per cent among swing voters

For the last few months it has been hard to get through a newspaper without some article pontificating about David Cameron's allure to swing voters. His boyish, Blairish, pram-pushing, nappy-changing, mug-washing, blogtastic friendliness.

What those articles haven't mentioned is that out in the real world and away from the media village, swing voters are not actually warming to David Cameron. Contrary to the media narrative, focus groups I have conducted have increasingly shown ambivalence, and often hostility to a man who, as one participant put it, is beginning to come across as all mouth and no trousers.

So it came as no surprise to us when an opinion poll we conducted alongside Populus for our new think tank - the Opinion Leader Forum - found that it is Brown, not Cameron who swing voters prefer. When asked who they would prefer to be the next Prime Minister, 24% of swing voters picked David Cameron, while 51% picked Gordon Brown.

Looking behind these figures, it seems that one reason for Brown's lead is that that swing voters are more likely to trust him to set the country in a better direction as Prime Minister. While 41% of swing voters agreed that Cameron would set the country in a better direction, 48% agree that Brown would. And, because more people disagree that Cameron would than Brown would, Brown enjoys a 12% lead in the net scores (total proportion who agree minus proportion who disagree).

Swing voters also rate Gordon Brown's personality more highly than David Cameron's on several key measures. Brown has a 27% lead on the net proportion of swing voters who see him as 'strong', while Cameron is 22% behind on having 'substance'. The only crumb of comfort for Cameron is his modest 8% lead on listening to the public - a lead dwarfed by Brown's astonishing 92% lead on being experienced.

Of course it's still relatively early days for Cameron and there is plenty of work for Labour to do before the next election. But these numbers show that it is Cameron, not Brown with a mountain to climb amongst swing voters.

It is worth briefly thinking about why these swing voters matter. Our poll picked out two groups of swing voters: those currently intending to vote Labour but open to voting for another party, and the much larger group who are currently not voting Labour but are open to doing so. Ultimately it is these people in marginal seats who will decide the next election. If Labour holds on to the voters currently planning to vote Labour, then on current horse-race standings, the Tories will need to reach something like 44% to win an outright victory - a number they haven't reached since the 1970s. If Labour make inroads into the group of swing voters that are open to voting for them but not currently doing so, the Tory task becomes just about impossible.

In light of this poll, there are two interesting things to watch out for. Firstly, these numbers should lead to a change in the media's assumptions about how Cameron and Brown will shape up against each other. With Brown clearly leading amongst swing voters, and with the latest Mori poll showing Labour to have a two point lead, it will be interesting to see if Cameron's media bubble bursts.

Secondly, it will be interesting to watch Cameron's strategy. There are of course two ways to secure votes. You can attempt to appeal to the swing voters - as Cameron has so far- or you can focus on mobilising people who would vote for you if they were to vote, but are not currently likely to make it to the ballot box. This was the approach the Tories focussed on unsuccessfully in 01 and 05, and they are right to have knocked this strategy on its head this time. But if Cameron's efforts to enter the middle ground are seen to be failing, the pressure from the right of his party to jag back their way is likely to rise. This is exactly what happened to  Michael Howard, IDS and William Hague, who all started out by tacking to the centre, before being dragged back to the right when they lost the ability to control the right of the party. Will history repeat itself?

About the poll

This poll was carried out in the weekend of 13-15th October. 1018 people were interviewed at random, of whom 242 were swing voters. The margin of error is ±3%.

The questions used to pick out swing voters were:

Q1. If there was a general election tomorrow, which party would you vote for?

Q2. [for all non-Labour voters] Although you are not currently intending to vote Labour, what are the chances that you will decide to support them in the next general election in three years time? A fair chance, a small chance, a slight chance, or no chance at all?

Q3. [for all Labour voters] Although you are current intending to vote Labour, what are the chances that you will decide to support another party in the next general election in three years time? A fair chance, a small chance, a slight chance, or no chance at all?

Swing voters are defined as people who say 'fair chance' in Q2 or Q3.

Comments

[Graeme Kemp]

David Cameron is still dangerous!Approach with caution...

We need to remember the Tories could still win the next election, if Labour get (or continue to be) careless. Cameron is slick, convincing and has moved the Conservatives to the Centre, at least at the level of rhetoric.

Yet the Tories never really change; they are still on the side of the wealthy and powerful. If they win, the low-paid will loose out.

However, let's not get too bogged down in debating personalities, or who will be the new Prime-Minister, after Tony Blair. 'Personality' is the bane of politics, as well as T.V.

Labour should be seeking to renew its ideas, beliefs and values, as well as policies. That's what will win the next election for Labour.