The Progressive

Provinicial GP or patrician QC?

The ever-excellent John Curtice, in yesterday's Sunday Telegraph, says it is mainly the Lib Dems who are suffering as a result of the recent Cameron surge.

But he also argues that this makes a Conservative majority at Labour's expense more likely:

'If the Liberal Democrats are on 23 per cent, as in 2005, Mr Cameron could well need an 11-point lead for a majority. But with the Lib Dems down to 14 per cent, the seven-point lead recorded in the poll could just be enough.'

The inference from much of today's press is that Nick Clegg could be Labour's unlikely saviour.
Perhaps, but didn't most of the Lib Dems' gains in 2005 come in Labour-held  seats?

And what evidence is there that Clegg would be more popular than Campbell? Ming's ratings may be bad, but Clegg is, at the moment, almost completely unheard of. He may be young and he may be good, but  there is no guarantee voters will prefer a Lib Dem leader with the air of a provincial GP to Ming's patrician lawyer.

Loud and clear, please

A survey by CommunicateResearch has today placed Labour at 36% in the opinion polls, giving us of 2% lead of 2%. Although this figure appears small, and will no doubt change repeatedly until the country next hits the ballot boxes, it should not go unmarked or uncelebrated. A similar poll last month, for the Independent, gave the Tories a 4% lead. How have Labour managed to regain the lead?

Andrew Grice, Political Editor at the Indy, claims that Labour’s surge in the polls is due merely to the prominence of law and order issues in the Queen’s Speech earlier this month. Steve Richards, also in the Indy, argues that these ‘reactionary’ issues may give the party a lead at present but cannot secure a forth term for Labour. Richards claims that Labour have focused heavily on these issues, at the expense of its progressive agenda, thus leaving the Downing Street door open for Cameron. His advice: Labour needs to shout about its progressive policies “loudly and often”. Take heed.

For more information take a look at www.communicateresearch.com