The Chancellor’s five economic tests became Britain's iron rule on entry to the single European currency. In that spirit, here are five tests that Gordon Brown needs to meet before he can win the Labour leadership contest, yet alone build a platform for a Labour fourth term.
1. Announce a debate on Labour’s future direction. Labour organisations as diverse as Progress, the Fabians and Compass want a debate on ideas and issues, not on when Tony hands the keys in. Leading a dialogue about the next decade of new Labour would give you the opportunity to flesh out your political values to an uncertain audience, scuppering those who want to paint you into a political corner.
2. Don’t ask for Tony’s endorsement. Blair may have been the most successful Labour leader of all time, but the popularity of every Prime Minister expires. Be confident and be yourself. The public may still chime with new Labour values, but they want a leader with a different style to Blair’s. Don’t fret over every comment page which criticises your puritanical values: a serious hardworking approach will be welcomed, if it is genuine. Pretending to be a fan of the Arctic Monkeys, or a life long England fan will not.
3. Hold back your troops. Constant infighting, backstabbing and behind the scenes briefing damages your chances of winning the leadership as much as it damages Blair. If Labour MPs think Iraq affected perceptions of the government, then a full scale civil war in Labour ranks will only add to public disregard. Inheriting a bloodstained crown will surely mean the kingdom is short lived. A No 10 adviser once called Brown 'a Shakespearean tragedy' – it is crucial that such prophecies are broken.
4. Don’t drift to the left. The temptation must be immense, but elections, even Labour party elections are won from the centre. The early period of office will define your premiership. Labour needs to reconnect with those areas of middle England that went Tory at the last council elections in order to win the next General Election. The great challenges of globalisation, energy security, the war on terror, pensions and individual prosperity will not be addressed from the extremes of politics.
5. Hit Cameron where it hurts. The Tories are supposedly relishing the prospect of Cameron going head to head with Brown over the Despatch Box. But Gordon should too. Cameron may be the first Tory leader in recent times with a strategy to win back power, but he has no policies. Gordon has experience, is seen as trustworthy, and serious. Cameron is all spin, while the British public increasingly see spin as the new sleaze. Cameron must be exposed – not only is he shallow, but fundamentally he has not changed the Tory party. His frontbench has none of the talent that Gordon Brown’s Cabinet will have.
Gordon Brown can use his much anticipated speech to party conference to establish his modernising credentials. He must show that he, not David Cameron is the natural heir to Blair. No-one expects him to announce his leadership manifesto now, but he must signal a willingness to engage with the kind of policy debate that every Labour party member, whether on the left, right, Blairite or Brownite wing wants to see.